Cardiology - Original Articles
18 July 2025

Risk stratification in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: evaluating the predictive accuracy of various risk scores in an Indian population

Publisher's note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.
6
Views
3
Downloads

Authors

Risk stratification is essential in managing patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). While multiple risk scores exist, their validation in developing countries like India remains limited. This study compares the predictive accuracy of the PURSUIT, HEART, TIMI, GRACE 2.0, and CAMI-NSTEMI scores for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, emergency percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass grafting, in NSTEMI patients. This was a single-center prospective observational study wherein patients diagnosed with NSTEMI were enrolled. Detailed clinical histories, including symptomatology and risk factors, were recorded. Five risk scores (TIMI, GRACE 2.0, PURSUIT, HEART, and CAMI-NSTEMI scores) were computed. Outcomes were assessed for in-hospital, 14-day, six-month, and one-year MACE. A total of 1102 patients were enrolled, with a mean age of 59.6±11.2 years. MACE occurred in 140 patients (12.7%), with 89 deaths (8.1%). Patients with MACE were older and more likely to smoke or have hypertension, diabetes, or stroke. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified angina in the last 48 hours, diabetes, smoking, cardiac arrest, and fragmented QRS on electrocardiogram as independent MACE predictors. TIMI showed the highest predictive ability for in-hospital MACE, while GRACE excelled for 14-day, 6-month, and 1-year outcomes. All risk scores effectively predicted short- and intermediate-term MACE, with GRACE performing best for longer-term predictions.

Altmetrics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Citations

Byrne RA, Rossello X, Coughlan JJ, et al. 2023 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes. Eur Heart J 2023;44:3720-826. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehad191
Ralapanawa U, Sivakanesan R. Epidemiology and the magnitude of coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome: a narrative review. J Epidemiol Glob Health 2021;11:169-77. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.201217.001
Collet JP, Thiele H, Barbato E, et al. 2020 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without persistent ST-segment elevation. Eur Heart J 2021;42:1289-367. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa909
Saxena M, Bloos SM, Graber-Naidich A, et al. Variation in ACS patient hospital resource utilization: Is it time for advanced NSTEMI risk stratification in the ED? Am J Emerg Med 2023;70:171-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajem.2023.05.028
Antman EM, Cohen M, Bernink PJ, et al. The TIMI risk score for unstable angina/non-ST elevation MI: A method for prognostication and therapeutic decision making. JAMA 2000;284:835-42. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.284.7.835
Granger CB, Goldberg RJ, Dabbous O, et al. Predictors of hospital mortality in the global registry of acute coronary events. Arch Intern Med 2003;163:2345-53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.163.19.2345
Fox KA, Fitzgerald G, Puymirat E, et al. Should patients with acute coronary disease be stratified for management according to their risk? Derivation, external validation and outcomes using the updated GRACE risk score. BMJ Open 2014;4:e004425. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004425
Backus BE, Six AJ, Kelder JC, et al. Chest pain in the emergency room: a multicenter validation of the HEART Score. Crit Pathw Cardiol 2010;9:164-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/HPC.0b013e3181ec36d8
Poldervaart JM, Langedijk M, Backus BE, et al. Comparison of the GRACE, HEART and TIMI score to predict major adverse cardiac events in chest pain patients at the emergency department. Int J Cardiol 2017;227:656-61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.10.080
Fu R, Song C, Yang J, et al. CAMI-NSTEMI Score-China acute myocardial infarction registry-derived novel tool to predict in-hospital death in non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. Circ J 2018;82:1884-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1253/circj.CJ-17-1078
Thygesen K, Alpert JS, Jaffe AS, et al. Fourth Universal definition of myocardial infarction (2018). Circulation 2018;138:e618-51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1161/CIR.0000000000000617
Youngstrom EA. A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC. J Pediatr Psychol 2014;39:204-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jpepsy/jst062
DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL. Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics 1988;44:837-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2531595
de Araújo Gonçalves P, Ferreira J, Aguiar C, Seabra-Gomes R. TIMI, PURSUIT, and GRACE risk scores: sustained prognostic value and interaction with revascularization in NSTE-ACS. Eur Heart J 2005;26:865-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehi187
Chen YH, Huang SS, Lin SJ. TIMI and GRACE risk scores predict both short-term and long-term outcomes in Chinese patients with acute myocardial infarction. Acta Cardiol Sin 2018;34:4-12.
Yan AT, Yan RT, Tan M, et al. Risk scores for risk stratification in acute coronary syndromes: useful but simpler is not necessarily better. Eur Heart J 2007;28:1072-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehm004
Sakamoto JT, Liu N, Koh ZX, et al. Comparing HEART, TIMI, and GRACE scores for prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiac events in high acuity chest pain patients in the emergency department. Int J Cardiol 2016;221:759-64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.07.147
Prabhudesai AR, Srilakshmi MA, Santosh MJ, et al. Validation of the GRACE score for prognosis in Indian patients with acute coronary syndromes. Indian Heart J 2012;64:263-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-4832(12)60084-4
Veenu J, Adhyapak S, Shetty GG, et al. Comparison of TIMI, PURSUIT, GRACE risk scores in Indians with NSTEMI: a prospective cohort study. J Cardiovasc Med Surg 2019;5:67-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21088/jcms.2454.7123.5219.4
Chong E, Shen L, Tan HC, Poh KK. A cohort study of risk factors and clinical outcome predictors for patients presenting with unstable angina and non ST segment elevation myorardial infraction undergoing coronary intervention. Med J Malaysia 2011;66:249-52.
Park HW, Yoon CH, Kang SH, et al. Early- and late-term clinical outcome and their predictors in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Int J Cardiol 2013;169:254-61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2013.08.132
Kassaian SE, Masoudkabir F, Sezavar H, et al. Clinical characteristics, management and 1-year outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndrome in Iran: the Iranian Project for Assessment of Coronary Events 2 (IPACE2). BMJ Open 2015;5:e007786. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-007786

Ethics approval

The current research work has been approved by the Ethics Committee of SMS Medical College, Jaipur. The approval document as issued by the Ethics Committee of SMS Medical College, Jaipur (IEC: 824 MC/EC/2020).

How to Cite



“Risk Stratification in Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Various Risk Scores in an Indian Population”. 2025. Monaldi Archives for Chest Disease, July. https://doi.org/10.4081/monaldi.2025.3386.